Physically-based landslide susceptibility analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in a tropical mountain basin     

Roberto J. Marin  Álvaro J. Mattos 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2020,14(3):192-205

ABSTRACT

Physically-based distributed models are implemented for landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment around the world. Probabilistic methodologies are considered appropriate to study and quantify the uncertainties derived from the input parameters of these models. In this paper, three sets of Monte Carlo simulations, each one with 10,000 iterations, were applied for a slope stability analysis in a small basin of Envigado (Colombia), using the TRIGRS model, to characterise the uncertainty in the landslide assessment. Different parameters to determine the minimum number of realizations required to ensure a small variation in the failure probability were proposed and analyzed. The quality of the landslide susceptibility assessment was studied. Unexpected and probably erroneous results that may be common in the maps generated using this and other similar methodologies were identified and explained. Additionally, the distribution of the factor of safety was calculated for different grid cells of the basin, showing that the probability density function with the best adjustment to the frequency histogram of the factor of safety can vary between grid cells. The assumption of a normal distribution for the factor of safety would be inappropriate and would lead to miscalculations in this case study.  相似文献   

金矿物统计研究中容易忽略的问题   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

韦龙明 《地质与勘探》2000,36(1):29-30

当前的金矿物统计工作大多局限于颗粒数百分比计算,而且常常把粒比简单地等同于重量比,这在理论上的实践上均是错误的。金矿物配分的本质是重量上的配分。根据物质的三维尺度特性,在光片中可以用面积比代替重量比;而在重砂分析中应尽量直接测定金矿物的质量,否则只能用体积比代重量比。  相似文献   

Analysis of a Long Record of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Athens,Greece, and Design Rainfall Inferences   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Koutsoyiannis  Demetris  Baloutsos  George 《Natural Hazards》2000,22(1):29-48

An annual series of maximum dailyrainfall extending through 1860–1995, i.e., 136 years,was extracted from the archives of a meteorologicalstation in Athens. This is the longest rainfall recordavailable in Greece and its analysis is required forthe prediction of intense rainfall in Athens, wherecurrently major flood protection works are under way.Moreover, the statistical analysis of this long recordcan be useful for investigating more generalisedissues regarding the adequacy of extreme valuedistributions for extreme rainfall analysis and theeffect of sample size on design rainfall inferences.Statistical exploration and tests based on this longrecord indicate no statistically significant climaticchanges in extreme rainfall during the last 136 years.Furthermore, statistical analysis shows that theconventionally employed Extreme Value Type I (EV1 orGumbel) distribution is inappropriate for the examinedrecord (especially in its upper tail), whereas thisdistribution would seem as an appropriate model iffewer years of measurements were available (i.e., partof this sample were used). On the contrary, theGeneral Extreme Value (GEV) distribution appears to besuitable for the examined series and its predictionsfor large return periods agree with the probablemaximum precipitation estimated by the statistical(Hershfield's) method, when the latter is consideredfrom a probabilistic point of view. Thus, the resultsof the analysis of this record agree with a recently(and internationally) expressed scepticism about theEV1 distribution which tends to underestimate thelargest extreme rainfall amounts. It is demonstratedthat the underestimation is quite substantial (e.g.,1 : 2) for large return periods and this fact must beconsidered as a warning against the widespread use ofthe EV1 distribution for rainfall extremes.  相似文献   

A Statistical Analysis of the Theoretical Yield of Ethanol from Corn Starch   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Tad W. Patzek 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(3):205-212

  This paper analyzes the Illinois State Variety Test results for total and extractable starch content in 708 samples of 401 commercial varieties of corn. It is shown that the normally distributed extractable starch content has the mean of 66.2% and the standard deviation of 1.13%. The corresponding maximum theoretical yield of ethanol is 0.364 kg EtOH/kg dry corn, and the standard deviation is 0.007. In the ethanol industry units, this yield translates to 2.64 gal EtOH/nominal wet bushel, and the standard deviation is 0.05 gal/bu. The U.S. ethanol industry consistently has inflated its ethanol yields by counting 5 volume percent of # 14 gasoline denaturant (8% of energy content) as ethanol. Also, imports from Brazil and higher alcohols seem to have been counted as U.S. ethanol. The usually accepted USDA estimate of mean ethanol yield in the U.S., 2.682 gal EtOH/bu, is one standard deviation above the rigorous statistical estimate in this paper.

Tad W. PatzekEmail:

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概率增益方法及其应用     

邱雪强  沈繁銮 《华南地震》2004,24(2):6-10

应用金学申、王晓青等推广的以时空概率增益模型为基础的综合预测模型,选取东南沿海地震带区域,分别计算了地震活动的时间和空间上的地震概率增益,并对其中的概率增益等参数进行分析,结果表明本区域的未来控震构造是北东向活动断裂带,未来3年本区域发生5级以上的地震概率较小。  相似文献   

一次地震预报有效性的"概率统计"评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之二   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

朱令人  洪时中  陈棋福  郑兆苾  王琼 《地震》2004,24(2):119-125

该提出了评价一次地震预报有效性的概率统计法(套圈模型)。设预报4维空间中一个有限封闭的范围,实际地震落人其范围内即为“报准”,否则为“未报准”。在报准的情况下,预报区间的大小就反映预报水平的高低。这可用预报区域内地震发生的自然概率P来衡量。与“打靶模型”相似,“套圈模型”评价上限是准理想预报尺度,下限是可容忍误差尺度。根据不同的尺度,计算相应的概率。以相应概率对数值之差为比例计算评价值。实际算例表明,此方法与距准误差评价结果相当吻合。  相似文献   

Entropy inference of recurrence models for variability analysis of extreme events     

A.?Solana-OrtegaEmail author  V.?Solana 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(3):167-187

A complete methodology is developed to analyze the recurrence of extreme environmental events and its variability as time without further events elapses. Firstly we investigate the conditioned recurrence inference problem consisting in the selection of a probability model for the interarrival time between extreme events, given a contexto-factual evidence conditioned by the time elapsed since the last of such events. Two ways to include this condition can be considered, which yield alternative conditioned evidences and convert the former problem into two distinct ones, thus giving rise to a possible consistency violation. These problems are formalized within the logical probability framework, in a plausible logic language that allows a suitable expression of the available observational data. They are solved using the REF relative entropy method with fractile constraints, and their solutions are compared at all inference levels. It is concluded that the two conditioning ways are not really mutually exclusive and that a unique global solution to the conditioned inference can be obtained using this procedure. An example illustrates an application of the methodology to the variability analysis of the recurrence time between historical inundations of the Guadalquivir river in Spain, as time elapses with no new floods.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by DGI of Spain as the grant REN2000-2988-E/CLI and the research project REN2002-01337/CLI.  相似文献   

Statistical estimation of the relative efficiency of natural attenuation mechanisms in contaminated aquifers     

Ole F.?ChristensenEmail author  G.?Cassiani  P. J.?Diggle  P. Ribeiro?Jr  G.?Andreotti 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(5):339-350

Using monitored natural attenuation is an increasingly popular strategy for dealing with contaminated aquifers. This paper provides a statistical methodology for the estimation of the relative efficiency of natural attenuation mechanisms. The methodology provides estimates, with associated measures of uncertainty, of the relative efficiency of four types of bio-degradation (oxidation using oxygen as the electron-acceptor, denitrification, iron reduction and sulfate reduction). A data set from Trecate, Italy, is analysed using the methodology. The analysis shows that sulfate is the main cause of hydrocarbon removal on this site. It is also seen that oxidation using oxygen seems to be more preferential than the other reactions, in the sense that this reaction is relatively more efficient than other reactions at locations where the hydrocarbon concentration is low.  相似文献   

A general framework for error analysis in measurement-based GIS Part 2: The algebra-based probability model for point-in-polygon analysis   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Yee?LeungEmail author  Jiang-Hong?Ma  Michael F.?Goodchild 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2004,6(4):355-379

This is the second paper of a four-part series of papers on the development of a general framework for error analysis in measurement-based geographic information systems (MBGIS). In this paper, we discuss the problem of point-in-polygon analysis under randomness, i.e., with random measurement error (ME). It is well known that overlay is one of the most important operations in GIS, and point-in-polygon analysis is a basic class of overlay and query problems. Though it is a classic problem, it has, however, not been addressed appropriately. With ME in the location of the vertices of a polygon, the resulting random polygons may undergo complex changes, so that the point-in-polygon problem may become theoretically and practically ill-defined. That is, there is a possibility that we cannot answer whether a random point is inside a random polygon if the polygon is not simple and cannot form a region. For the point-in-triangle problem, however, such a case need not be considered since any triangle always forms an interior or region. To formulate the general point-in-polygon problem in a suitable way, a conditional probability mechanism is first introduced in order to accurately characterize the nature of the problem and establish the basis for further analysis. For the point-in-triangle problem, four quadratic forms in the joint coordinate vectors of a point and the vertices of the triangle are constructed. The probability model for the point-in-triangle problem is then established by the identification of signs of these quadratic form variables. Our basic idea for solving a general point-in-polygon (concave or convex) problem is to convert it into several point-in-triangle problems under a certain condition. By solving each point-in-triangle problem and summing the solutions, the probability model for a general point-in-polygon analysis is constructed. The simplicity of the algebra-based approach is that from using these quadratic forms, we can circumvent the complex geometrical relations between a random point and a random polygon (convex or concave) that one has to deal with in any geometric method when probability is computed. The theoretical arguments are substantiated by simulation experiments.This project was supported by the earmarked grant CUHK 4362/00H of the Hong Kong Research grants Council.  相似文献   

Fragility curves for reinforced concrete structures in Skopje (Macedonia) region     

E. Dumova-Jovanoska   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2000,19(6):314

A method for the development of earthquake intensity–damage relations, given as fragility curves and damage probability matrices is proposed in this paper. The proposed method is applied on reinforced-concrete frame-wall structures. Two sets of fragility curves and damage probability matrices are developed. The first one is for reinforced-concrete frame structures lower than 10 stories. For this purpose, a six-story frame structure is used. The other set is defined for reinforced-concrete frame-wall structures higher than 10 stories. A 16-story frame-wall structure was chosen as a sample. The sample structures were designed according to Macedonian design code. The conditions of the local seismic hazard were the subject of special concern for the development of earthquake intensity–damage relations. Because of the limited number of real time histories from the Skopje region, a set of 240 synthetic time histories were generated. Geological dates from the Skopje region were used. Response of the sample structures under earthquake excitation was defined performing nonlinear dynamic analysis. Modeling of the nonlinear behavior of the structural elements was completed according to state-of-the-art methods in this field. A modified Park and Ang damage model was chosen as a measure of the structure's response to earthquake excitation. Five damage states were defined to express the condition of damage. As a result of the analytical research, the values of the global damage index corresponding to each damage state were determined. Using the dates from the nonlinear dynamic analysis of the sample structures under all 240 synthetic time histories, the two sets of fragility curves and damage probability matrices were defined.  相似文献